Abstract:
In this study we examined the relationship between exchange rate changes and export
performance in Turkey. The study uses time series data from mid 1980s, the years
Turkey started to use flexible exchange rate and export-based growth, and ends at 2009,
the year Turkish export reach a significant place in the world’s exports.
In empirical analysis, the study uses bound testing and autoregressive distributed lag
(ARDL) approach to model the dynamic relationship between the exports and its
determinants. The short-run and long-run causality among the variables in the model is
determined based on the estimated ARDL models. The empirical results show that the
real effective exchange rate coefficient is insignificant. Therefore depreciation of real
exchange rate in Turkey does not cause a substantial increase in export volume in longrun.
We find that the recent export boom in Turkey is determined by wages, productivity
and world demand, rather than exchange rate changes
Description:
Master of Science in Economics. Thesis (M.S.)--Eastern Mediterranean University, Faculty of Business and Economics, Dept. of Economics, 2009. Supervisor: Assoc. Prof. Dr. Mehmet Balcılar.