Regression modeling for incidence of diabetics

Abstract

ABSTRACT: Biostatistics is one of the important approaches for decision makers in the health sciences for mathematical modeling and predictions. The choosing of a topic of diabetes to be applied in this study due to the importance of finding a cure of this disease, which is the incidence rates increased in the last years. The reason of this increased and the types are investigated by the researchers, to illustrate how some variables as weight and age its effects on diabetes. The study was conducted on a sample of 1385 patients with diabetes, randomly selected from the community data diabetics in the Diabetics Center province of Duhok/ Kurdistan Region of Iraq, of 10,083 patients with diabetes, and applies the theories of linear regression on this data to create a mathematical equation helps us to anticipate future injury rates. The results are then compared with the results of statistical study on the Greek Cypriot patients less than 15 years of age, to clarify the differences and to clarify the effects. The use of the Statistical Software Packages for Social Sciences (SPSS) in this study is to obtain more accurate results and reduce the time and voltage. This study basically is the application of linear regression modeling to cases of diabetic patients. Chapter one included a brief about diabetes and its type and reference to some other statistical researches conducted on diabetic's data. Chapter two is about the theories and concepts that can use it in application this study and obtained requires results. The third chapter is the application of these statistical theories on diabetic's data that there is a belief that have an effect on incidence this disease like weight and family genetic history, and analyze the results graphically and illustrations using the Statistical Package for Social Sciences which is referred as SPSS, then modeling a mathematical regression equation for these data. The results showed several statistics about the Duhok data. Several differences in terms of means between males and females were listed. Duhok data and its statistics were compared with a data related with Cyprus region. A regression function was also constructed for predicting diabetes for some next time periods. An exponential model fitted the current Duhok data. Keywords: Biostatistics, Statistical Analysis, Diabetes, Regression Analysis, Mathematical Modeling, Statistical Software Packages for Social Sciences (SPSS). ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… ÖZ: Biyoistatistik, sağlık bilimleriyle ilgili biyolojik veri analizi ve modellemesinde kullanılabilen önemli bir daldır. Bu çalışmada Irak’ın Duhok bölgesi için diyabetik hastalarla ilgili bilgilerin analizi yapılarak özellikle erkek ve kadın hastalar arasındaki değişik statistiki ilişkilerin tesbit edilmesine çalışılmıştır. Ayrıca Kıbrıs’daki bir durum analizindeki verilerle de Dukok verileri arasında bir karşılaştırma yapılmıştır. Ayrıca Duhok bölgesindeki diyabetli hasta sayısının ilerleyen zaman dilimlerindeki değişimin kestirilebilmesi için regresyon analizi de yapılarak sözkonusu verilerin en iyi exponansiyel modelle modellenebildiği ortaya konmuştur. Anahtar Kelimeler: Biyoistatistik, İstatistiksel Veri Analizi, Diyabet, Matematiksel Modelleme, Regresyon Analizi.