Modeling North Cyprus COVID-19: Correlation Between Reproduction Number, and Age- and Resource-Dependent Fatality Rates

Abstract

The estimation of key epidemiological parameters is essential for understanding and controlling infectious diseases such as COVID-19. Compartmental models, which segment the population based on stages of disease progression, serve as valuable tools in this endeavor. This study develops an Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Critical-Recovered-Deceased model to predict dynamics of COVID-19 in North Cyprus, integrating both time-dependent reproduction numbers and resource-sensitive fatality rates. The model is calibrated using real-world data from North Cyprus to ensure close alignment with observed trends and to provide accurate forecasts for potential future developments. © 2025 IEEE.