Economic policy uncertainty and tourism: evidence from the heterogeneous panel

Abstract

In this paper, we examine whether tourism predicts economic policy uncertainty or not in three regions of America, Europe, and Asia-pacific, using annual frequency panel data that consist of 12 countries in a multivariate Granger causality model that incorporates economic growth as an additional variable over the periods 1995-2016. Using the panel Granger causality method as advanced by Emirmahmutoglu and Kose [(2011). Testing for Granger causality in heterogeneous mixed panels. Economic Modelling, 28(3), 870-876.] that produces country-specific Granger causality test statistic and also controlled for heterogeneity in panel data, we found two-way causality relationship between ITAs and EPU in France, Ireland and United State, and one-way causality relationship from ITAs to EPU in Brazil, Canada, China and Germany and neutrality hypothesis in Chile, Japan, South Korea, Russia and Sweden, respectively. These results suggest tourism-economic policy uncertainty led-hypothesis and economic policy uncertainty-tourism led hypothesis with worthy policy implications for tourism destinations across the world.