Comparison of macroeconomic performance of Turkey and East Asian countries, and an econometric analysis of economic growth in Turkey

Abstract

The primary aim of this paper is two-fold: First, it provides comparative data regarding the growth rate of real GNP, inflation rate, the domestic saving and investment rates, and the ratio of exports to GNP in relation to Turkey and four of the fast growing East Asian countries including Malaysia, Indonesia, Korea and China. Second, the paper tests various hypotheses regarding the impact of saving rate, investment rate, export growth and volatility of export growth, the share of exports in GNP, inflation rate and saving rate on the growth rate of real GNP in Turkey. Historical data show that the East Asian countries selected, have systematically saved and invested much more than Turkey (in proportion to their GNP) and exported much bigger percentage of their output. Application of simple O.L.S. regression analysis to the annual Turkish data spanning the time period of 1980-2001 suggested that each one of the hypothesis tested can not be rejected.