Twin deficits phenomenon in small islands: an empirical investigation by panel data analysis

Abstract

This article empirically investigates the direction of causality between current account balance and the overall budget balance of a selected 24 small island state economies by conducting panel data econometric techniques. The results of both bivariate and pairwise Granger causality tests suggest that there is unidirectional causation which runs from current account balance to the overall budget balance. On the other hand, no evidence has been obtained on the causation which runs from budget balance to current account balance in small island states.