A road to enhancements in natural gas use in Iran: A multivariate modelling approach

Abstract

The primary focus of this study is to empirically investigate the natural gas consumption-economic growth nexus in Iran, while incorporating real gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) and the role of oil revenue (OR) as additional variables to make it a multivariate framework in order to avoid possible omission variable bias in the estimations. To this end, quarterly frequency data from 1990Q1 to 2017Q4. Structural break point unit root test like Zivot and Andrews is employed and complemented with traditional non-stationarity tests such as Augmented Dickey Fuller and Phillips and Perron unit tests to investigate the interest variables stationarity characteristics. Recently developed Bayer and Hanck (2013) combined cointegration test is used alongside the Pesaran et al. (2001) bounds testing cointegration to test for long-run relationship among the variables. Finally, we test for causal relationships through Modified Wald test of Tada-Yamamoto (1995) Granger causality tests is employed. Empirical findings show cointegration relationship between the variables while accounting for structural break. Further piece of empirical results suggest that natural gas consumption exerts a significant positive impact on economic output in Iran, and also that there is a one-way causality from natural gas consumption to economic output. Thus, our study corroborates the natural gas-led growth hypothesis; being natural gas consumption a suitable alternative, as a complementary green energy source (IGU, 2015). One important conclusion reached in our study is that there is need for energy portfolio diversification in Iran in order to attain full gains from the energy sector, reducing other energies' emissions. Further insights are elucidated in the main text. Our findings provide policymakers useful insight into the state of the energy sector in Iran.