Iran and Turkey in central Asia: Opportunities for rapprochement in the post-cold war era

Abstract

In the post-Cold War era Turkey and Iran, the latter under the leadership of a moderate President, are faced with an important opportunity to improve mutual relations. Both states could make a significant contribution to the process of the formation of a democratic world system, which in turn favors the concerns of western democratic states. Although there is suitable ground to protect their long-term mutual and regional interests by pursuing foreign policy objectives based on pragmatic concerns, it is obvious that both Iranian and Turkish politicians cannot bring their desires into practice in the near future. The main obstacle, in short, remains the conservative political groups in Iran who, aside from attacks on domestic democratic opposition, still pursue power politics: e.g. in the form of gaining greater influence over the Caspian Sea region. These groups continue to regard Western countries and democratic rules as major threats to their religious regime and, therefore, they cooperate with Russia in military and security fields in order to deter the United States and NATO. The future direction of Turkey's growing rapprochement with Iran cannot simply be reduced to a victory of moderates over conservatives in Iran. As this paper has demonstrated, other important factors must be considered such as domestic political developments in Turkey, regional balance of power considerations, and evolving Turkish-Israeli relations. However, the authors do believe that a victory for the moderates, although forming only a part of the rapprochement equation, is of paramount importance and, indeed, forms the central plank of understanding in any analyses of the future direction of Iran-Turkey relations.