Financial Crisis in the US Economy: Evidence from a Probit Model for Time Period 2001-2009

Abstract

This Thesis empirically investigates the probability of determinants of currency crises in the USA economy for the year 2008. In particular, it focuses on the case of the USA economy taking into account both domestic fundamental and external shock (contagion effect) by conducting both ordinary least square (OLS) technique and Probit model. The evidence found in this study shows that the USA currency crisis was contagious from the countries such as England and Qatar. It also indicate that deteriorating trade balance, increase of banks‟ claims on private and domestic sector, deficit current account balance, misalignment of real exchange rate, and high market pressure index increase speculative attack on the currency in the case of the USA case. Based on our findings, it could suggest that a financial crisis in a country not only depends on a country‟s economic structure and its policy but also region as well as global effect apart from the cultural and political effects.