Analysing build-operate-transfer models in utility projects

Abstract

In this paper the financial viability of undertaking build-operate-transfer (BOT) contracts for sewer and water projects in California, United States of America is analysed. Furthermore with the aid of sensitivity analysis, risk parameters are identified. Sensitivity analysis results demonstrate that project construction cost determines the financial viability of undertaking a BOT contract; therefore, reliable construction cost prediction, based on limited information, at the early stages of the project planning phase is crucial for development of an objective BOT agreement. This study utilizes gene expression programming (GEP), an extension of the genetic algorithm and genetic programming, to develop a prediction model for estimating the construction cost of water and sewer rehabilitation/replacement projects. A database used for developing the model was established on the basis of data related to 210 water and sewer projects obtained from the City of San Diego, California, United States of America. © Civil-Comp Press, 2015.