Export volatility and output growth: Case of turkey

Abstract

The paper focuses on investigating the causal relationship between the volatilities in export growth and the share of exports in GDP and economic growth for Turkey. The results of Granger causality tests give evidence of causality running from economic growth to the anticipated volatilities of export growth and the share of exports in GDP respectively. The statistical tests suggest that there are no statistically significant causal effects of the respective volatilities of export growth and the share of exports in GDP (in anticipated, unanticipated and, combined anticipated and unanticipated volatility forms) on growth rate of GDP for Turkey.