Comparison of standardized meteorological indices for drought monitoring at northern part of Cyprus

Abstract

Drought monitoring and assessment are essential for sustainable and effective planning and management of scarce resources under changing environment. Large number of indices are developed that can be utilized to characterize drought events. This study aims to compare and evaluate the performance of standardized precipitation index (SPI), reconnaissance drought index (RDI), statistical Z-Score, China Z-Index (CZI), Supply and Demand Drought Index (SDDI) and combined China Z and Supply and Demand Drought Index (CZSDDI) for their suitability, effectiveness and dependability and for monitoring the impact of drought on agriculture and groundwater. The study revealed that all the drought indices are highly and significantly correlated with each other (minimum 0.982 and maximum 0.998). In capturing the impact of drought on yield of wheat and barley, all the indices were equally satisfactory while SDDI performed comparatively better. On the other hand, none of the indices were representative on analysing drought impact on groundwater sources. In addition, using non-parametric Mann-Kendall trend test the temporal evolution of drought indices disclosed statistically insignificant trends. Finally, the relationship between drought and Southern Oscillation (La Nino/El Nino episodes) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) events have been scrutinised and found that there exists no clear evidence on these teleconnection patterns to have any influence on the occurrence of drought in the study area.