The triangular nexus causality among economic growth, trade, FDI and Oil Price: time series analyses of Nigeria

Abstract

The central objective of this work was to test and determine the causality between the selected economic indicators such as trade, FDI, Oil Price and GDP in Nigeria and make a recommendation for a timely policy framework for the betterment of the Nigerian economy. Using Nigerian annual data of 1970-2018 with the application of Granger causality test, we found a unidirectional causality that runs from Oil Price to both FDI and trade and from FDI to trade. There was no causal effect transmitting from either trade to Oil Price or trade to FDI. Also, there was no transmission of causality from GDP growth to any of the selected indicators. Our findings expose the heavy influence of oil via price on the economic performance of Nigeria. This could justify the claim that there is a positive relationship between Oil Price and growth. Hence, supporting the findings that FDI is attracted by the availability of oil and the FDI will turn around influenced the rate of trade via trade openness. This will create avenue for a virtuous economic growth circle if policy implication is managed well.