Determination of Temporary Hubs Locations Along a River in Case of Flood

Abstract

Due to global climate change, the frequency and intensity of floods will be increasing in the decades to come. Under these conditions, there is an urgent need to develop such relatively simple and robust models and methods, which help the logistical preparatory and crisis management work in case of this natural disaster. In the crisis management phase, the integrated complex command centers and logistical hubs play an essential role. It is an open-ended question: how do we determine the optimal location of these hubs, and find an optimal compromise between their radius of supply and vulnerability? The current article presents a simple and fast method to determine the optimal position of hubs, minimizing their vulnerability, in cases when there is no chance to control the flood of the river (no dam), and in cases when there is a natural or artificial barrier, preventing the flow of water (dam scenario). Based on a system of equations, applying the Gumbel distribution of maximal water levels in various years, the article offers numerical examples to prove the simplicity and practical applicability of the method developed. This approach can supply a decision support system, based on AI. The paper concludes with policy implications.