Urban expansion and densification analysis of large Moroccan cities from 1994 to 2024: A case study of Rabat, Casablanca, and Marrakech

Abstract

In recent decades, urban areas have expanded rapidly, primarily due to significant population growth. Understanding urban expansion dynamics is crucial for sustainable planning, especially in fast-growing cities of developing nations. This study presents the first long-term analysis (1994-2024) of urban expansion and densification in three major Moroccan cities-Rabat, Casablanca, and Marrakech-utilizing Landsat imagery. Applying the inverse S-shaped urban land density function, we identified spatiotemporal growth patterns and their relationship with Land Surface Temperature (LST). Findings indicate predominantly monocentric, compact expansion (5%-9% annually), with marked density increases between 2004 and 2014. An inverse correlation emerged between urban density and surface temperature, with peripheral low-density zones exhibiting higher LST. These results underscore the importance of policies that promote balanced growth, polycentric development, and green infrastructure to mitigate urban heat. This research offers critical insights for fostering sustainable, climate-resilient urban planning in Morocco and similarly urbanizing regions.